DOT_CALM

Maybe, but it’s irrelevant. I think MUT ‘16 was the last time there were over 99 stars on cards. Didn’t matter, though. It was proven to have no impact on gameplay by numerous YouTubers/members testing 99+ stats. While most of the tests were specifically to KPW, it was found that Kickers with 101, 102, 103, etc. KPW have the same max kick distance as those with 99 KPW. Now, that was a while ago and maybe things have changed, but I’m going to assume (until proven wrong) that 99+ stats still have zero impact on actual gameplay.

The TVP has historically returned ~30k per pack in volume. At a cost of 12k training per, buying training at a rate of > 2.5 is unsustainable. The current rate of training (2.6-2.7) is simply to high to sustain rolling TVPs in volume. At a training rate of 2.9, each pack cost you 34.8k coins. Your expected loss was 4.8k per pack, or ~500k total. So yes, you did get a little unlucky, but you’re buying training way, way too high to come close to breaking even, let alone make a profit.

But….to “keep rolling” you’d have to continuously break even or make profit. It’s unlikely you’ll be able to do either with the Pro Star -> TVP method.

Nah, bro. You’re just getting lucky. At various times over the past ~10 days I’ve tried the Pro Star Fantasy -> TVP “method” and its outright terrible. I’d open packs until I had 1.2 million training and roll it into the TVP (selling anything going 15%+ over training value). The absolute best training return rate I got was 3.2, the worst was 4.6 (disgusting). Neither of these training rates lead to sustained profitability when rolling the TVP over time. With the availability of <=2.7 training rates in the AH you’re far better off getting training there. Yes, opening packs is objectively more fun, but your risk of ruin is 100% over the long-run doing the Pro Star Fantasy -> TVP “method”. I’d quit while you’re ahead. ✋

I pulled 39 Hunters in ~350 TVP rolls. I’m conflicted here. On the one hand, there is something wrong with the pack. Updating the TB animation disrupted the pull rate of Hunter to an insane degree to the detriment of the return per pack. On the other hand, everything that should be in the pack is technically in the pack, so you could argue there’s nothing wrong with the pack and the ROI is simply lower now due to the atypical pull rate on Hunter. My guess? EA does fix the pack but makerights won’t be issued. 🤷‍♂️

The only thing I can think of is people selling off their team in anticipation of training cratering due to the TVP expiring and the increase in OVR impacting pack odds, now rushing to buy cards back. What I think a lot of people fail to realize is that the value high end cards exist independently of the current training rate, and coin packs odds have been atrocious all year. Sure, everything =<94 OVR is likely much cheaper today, but any card that’s top-3 at any position likely didn’t move much at all.

My dude. ✋ What did that profit look like today?

The coded pull rate for LTDs has always been ~0.7%. Some will get lucky and some won’t. People are more likely to post results that fall on either end of the spectrum (unlucky vs. lucky). I bet if we average all the “good” and “bad” runs (based on LTDs only) we’d find the average pull rate settles around 0.7%. We just gotta trust the thousands of TVP pulls I’ve done previously. I agree though, there have been more “I didn’t pull any LTDs in X amount of training” today. I think we can chalk that up to some cognitive dissonance, though.

Following my giveaway I had a bunch of people DM me regarding making coins. My largest piece of advice was to buy training at a <2 price point during the TVP “lull” time. S**t, I made a whole topic promoting it for everyone. Seems like a lot of regulars took that advice and made ridiculous coin today. I personally thought the TVP would come back at 12k/per, 9k makes the profit margin ridiculous. 😝

EA really cucked me here with this 5 day BS. I’m on a business trip and don’t have my Xbox. I’ll be back sometime Wednesday….maybe I’ll get time to roll through a few mil, but not all 24 million training I had saved up. Literally thought about running out and buying a Series S literally just to roll the TVP while it’s here 😂 F**k. Oh well. Based on other results posted and the fact that the contents of the TVP changed very little (just new redux cards) I think the expected 30k-33k assumption still stands. Anyone who went in on training over the past few weeks is going to make 🏦 Get those coins, boys. 👌