When I did the Profit Warning post 3 days ago, 99 Vick was not expected to be released. When he popped it did make the situation worst than predicted by that analysis. I will now share some forward planning.
On the Coin Supply
Without a doubt, the total coin supply in the system is at the lowest possible. Especially in the past 24-48 hours as coins were literally thrown in an attempt to pull 99OVR Vick. The magnitude of the deflation we are currently going through is different from the one that we usually experience.
Price deflation takes place when people stop spending in anticipation of lower prices later
Monetary deflation happens when the overall coin supply in Madden Mobile is reduced. In our case, at least a hundred billion has been spent on trying to pull Vick. In the life of madden mobile 17, we have never experienced this event before. A lot of really conservative high-net-worth players decided to go for Vick.
In a regular promo, price deflation takes place just BEFORE the promo releases, and as a promo is WINDING DOWN. At the moment SB51 promo is winding down. Coupled with monetary deflation coin supply is legit low.
Tell me about how I will be affected
Most users will not and shouldn't be experiencing anything that's different from a promo winding down, in others words we should experience the same as when BCA, MF, UF promos are winding down. At the time of posting I made a check on base elite prices, they are looking fine. Anyway to continue, in this scenario price deflation applies but it is to be expected. Promo elites go for dirt cheap, promo gold players going for nothing. That's ok, that's what every one expects and have been expecting since the start of BCA in 2016.
Who = affected?
Users that are heavily invested in high value cards such as SB limited edition masters such as 99OVR Julio, 99OVR White. And speculators that are expecting a huge increase in coin value of their investments within a short time-span. Card values might not have increased as quickly as investors would like it to. If these two groups of investors panic, due to the release of UL or NFL honors cards of sorts the impact of the double deflation will be felt immediately.
How does "panic" happen? What happens when people panic? They sell everything and they hold onto their coins.
Why am I (Jorgoan) and you shouldn't be worried
Most investors of high value cards know what they are doing, most budget speculators have already sold their Jerry Rice cards for 1.4mil coins. There is a certain level of uncertainty going forward but as the promo is winding down (expected problems) and we have already seen the damages that Vick has done (empty bank accounts + depression). There really isn't any crazy triggers left that are expected.
Wait! What about 1 stamina day and that 99OVR honors card that might come with +5 dual boost? One stamina day is addressed below, read further for thoughts! As for that 99OVR honors card, I can assure you that the card will NOT match Vick's allure. And with community exhaustion (end of promo + sitting on investments + empty bank accounts & 1000 trophy packs that aren't worth the bench space its sitting on ) there really isn't much impact left to be had. You cannot empty a bankrupt account.
Addressing some questions
Tom Brady MVP is released! Elites crash!!! ...?
Elites are reduced in price not because Brady has been released. Elites prices are reduced because the promo is winding down and we are experiencing price deflation which people stop spending because they can build the mvp set in 3 days and elite prices are going to continue to drop.
1 Stamina day is coming! Hide your kids!
1 stamina day is going to put downward pressure on prices because the number of elites (potentially from spending your stamina?!) is going to increase. This is just going to play into the same situation as Brady. Everything will be swept into "price deflation"
Secondly, the community as a whole has 1 week to prepare for whatever that might happen during 1 stamina day.
At the same time, 1 stamina day is going to increase the coin supply and help out with the deflationary pressure that we are facing. For eg. Say a user has 30 stamina at the moment, if an event is paying out 250 madden coins per 4 stamina which amounts to 1,750 coins. The user will now generate 7,500 madden coins.
Whatever you think is going to happen, is going to happen. And you won't even bat an eyelid, because you already know.
This is not exhaustive there are a ton of factors not account for, I've also simplified things by trying to push everything under "price deflation" for easy understanding. Feel free to add in your thoughts and to correct what I have shared, all comments appreciated. For confidence purposes I never edit my analytical threads, please forgive any errors in sentencing/grammar errors. Thanks for reading!